Nigeria’s Inflation Drops to 16.05% as Rice, Garri, Beans Prices Ease

• Nigeria’s inflation fell to 16.05% in October 2025, down from 18.02% in September, driven largely by a significant slowdown in food inflation, according to new data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

Nigeria’s inflation rate has declined to 16.05% in October 2025, dropping from 18.02% recorded in September, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has reported.

The sharp decline was largely influenced by a notable easing in food inflation, which fell to 13.12% in October from 16.87% in September. The NBS attributed this drop to reduced prices of key staples such as maize, garri and beans.

According to the NBS’s October 2025 Inflation Report, the headline inflation rate decreased by 1.96 percentage points compared to September. On a year-on-year basis, inflation was 17.82 percentage points lower than the 33.88% recorded in October 2024.

The report noted:“This shows that the headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) decreased in October 2025 compared to the same month in the preceding year, though with a different base year, November 2009 = 100.”

However, on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rose slightly to 0.93%, up from 0.72% in September. This indicates that the average price level increased at a faster rate in October compared to the previous month.

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Food Inflation Trends

Food inflation stood at 13.12% year-on-year, representing a 26.04 percentage-point drop from October 2024’s 39.16%.

On a month-on-month basis, food inflation was -0.37% in October, higher by 1.21 percentage points compared to the -1.57% recorded in September.

The NBS also reported that the average annual food inflation rate for the twelve months ending October 2025 was 21.96%, which was 16.16 percentage points lower than the 38.12% recorded in October 2024.

Analyst Projections

Market analysts, including experts from Meristem and other investment firms, project that food inflation will continue to ease in the near term. They attribute this expected trend to the ongoing harvest season and government-led food security interventions.

State-by-State Breakdown

Food inflation varied significantly across the states in October:

• Highest:
  • Ogun – 20.58%
  • Nasarawa – 19.96%
  • Ekiti – 19.70%
• Lowest:
  • Akwa Ibom – 3.98%
  • Katsina – 4.15%
  • Yobe – 4.29%

The report highlights improving price stability across several regions, although inflationary pressures remain uneven nationwide.